According to USDA’s September forecast of the 2006 cotton crop, U.S. production is projected at

20.3 million bales, 100,000 bales below the August forecast and 15 percent below last season’s

record crop.

U.S. crop conditions have remained considerably below last season and have led to a national

abandonment rate of 16 percent (nearly 2.5 million acres).

Upland production is projected at 19.5 million bales,2010新款羽绒服, 3.7 million below last season, while the extra-

long staple (ELS) crop is forecast at a record 825,000 bales, about 200,000 bales above 2005.

During the previous 20 years, the September forecast has been above final cotton production 8

times and below 12 times. Past differences between the September forecast and the final

production estimate indicate that chances are two out of three that the 2006 U.S. cotton crop will

range between 19.0 and 21.7 million bales.

Compared with last season, upland production is lower in three of the four Cotton Belt regions. Only

the Delta region is projected to produce a crop larger than a year ago.

Delta production is forecast at nearly 8 million bales, 7 percent above last season and a record, as

area is at its highest in 5 years.

In contrast, the largest decline is forecast for the Southwest, where production is expected to fall 36

percent from 2005’s record to 5.7 million bales.

Drought conditions in the region have led to large abandonment expectations and the lower crop

estimate.The Southeast is forecast to produce a 4.4-million-bale crop, 15 percent below 2005 but

near the 5-year average for the region.

In the West, upland production is expected to decline to 1.4 million bales, 800,000 bales below

average as area is reduced significantly there and below-average yields are expected.

In contrast, the ELS crop is expected to rise 31 percent above 2005 and remain concentrated in

California; area and production there account for 84 and 88 percent, respectively, of the total ELS

crop.

Total area planted to cotton is estimated at nearly 15.3 million acres, the highest in 5 years, while

harvested area is forecast at 12.8 million, the lowest in 3 years.

The national yield, estimated at 762 pounds per harvested acre, would be the lowest since 2003.

The lower harvested area and yield are the result of crop conditions that continue below last season

and the 5-year average.

As of September 10th, 33 percent of the cotton area was rated “poor” or “very poor,”

compared with only 12 percent a year ago. Similarly, only 39 percent of the 2006 area was rated

“good” or “excellent,” compared with 65 percent in 2005.

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